Happy Birthday, SLD!

The Shangri-La Diet (the book) is two years old. What’s happened during the last year?

The nerd in me is enormously concerned with numerical measures of popularity. Is the diet spreading? If so, how fast? This can be measured dozens of ways; the number I trust most is number of visitors to the SLD forums. This number has been steadily increasing. Plotted on a log scale, the visitors-vs-time function is roughly linear ( = same percentage increase each month). The number has doubled in a year. It was about 7,000 a year ago; it is about 14,000 now. The increase has happened/is happening without much effort from me. During the first year, I posted on the forums several times per day; now I post less than once/day.

Which brings up Topic 2: Improvements by users — which the populist in me cares about. I like to think that allowing anyone to contribute ideas and experience, which they can do via the SLD forums, will be a good thing. (Not only here: the Weston Price Foundation website should have forums.) I also like to think the ideas behind SLD have a life of their own. More than other weight-loss methods, the Shangri-La Diet is based on a theory. Most weight-loss methods are based on good/bad classifications: Food A is good, Food B is bad. Not much room for improvement. A theory, on the other hand, can be used in many ways. Mixing a new theory with lots of user experimentation should be really powerful — especially when the user-experimenters can trade ideas and experience. It should produce a different kind of growth: growth of efficacy. Over the last year I was especially impressed with comments on the SLD forums about nose-clipping. This thread in particular. Heidi555 wrote:

I think it’s much easier to nose clip a higher percentage of food. The AS is noticeable and you don’t have to exert any will power. I don’t worry about a two hour window. . . . The weirdest thing is that I always feel like I’m eating a lot. Maybe eating as much as you want, of whatever you want, always feels like a lot.

By “much easier” she meant much easier than other ways of applying the theory (“taking oil, sugar water, or a smaller amount of nose clipped food). Wearing nose-clips in public isn’t easy, but that could change. Isn’t wearing nose-clips a lot like wearing glasses?

Another part of me likes a good story — e.g., American Idol. If I wanted to tell a story about SLD during the last year, I would stress the omega-3 storyline, especially 1. Tyler Cowen no longer needs gum surgery after he starts taking flaxseed oil (FSO). 2. Anonymous finds himself healing more quickly after martial arts practice when he starts taking FSO. Stops taking FSO, returns to baseline, restarts FSO, improves again. I like the unexpectedness of it: Why would a new diet lead to this? Speaking of fights, in New York, I met a woman who works on reality TV shows. “That’s what my job is about,” she said. “Getting people to fight.” Yes, fight = good TV. Over the last year, the SLD forums remained bad TV: exceptionally well-behaved and conflict-free. I’m not sure what this means, but I really like it.

Stephen Marsh’s 2.5 yrs on SLD.

Assorted Links

  1. Why Word has an animated paperclip. For more on this, see the excellent Who Really Matters: The Core Group Theory of Power, Prestige, and Success by Art Kleiner.
  2. Does sugar make it harder to fight off microbes?
  3. Practical memory training.
  4. Interview with Leonard Mlodinow, author of Feynman’s Rainbow and the soon-to-be-published The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives.

Thanks to Dave Lull and Peter Spero.

The Scientific Method, Half-Finished but Wholly-Accepted

In a science classroom at a middle school I saw a poster about “the scientific method.” There were seven steps; one was “analyze your data.” According to the poster, you use the data you’ve collected to say if your hypothesis was right or wrong. Nothing was said about using data to generate new hypotheses. Yet coming up with ideas worth testing is just as important as testing them.

It’s like teaching the alphabet and omitting half of the letters. Or teaching French and omitting half the common words. While no one actually teaches only half the alphabet or only half of common French words, this is how science is actually taught. Not just in middle school, everywhere. The poster correctly reflects the usual understanding. I have seen dozens of books about scientific method. They usually say almost nothing about how to come up with a new idea worth testing. An example is Statistics For Experimenters, a well-respected book by Box, Hunter, and Hunter. One of the authors (George Box) is a famous statistician.

The curious part of this omission is how unnecessary it is. Every scientific idea we now take for granted started somewhere. It would be no great effort to find where a bunch of them came from.

The McCarrison Society

The McCarrison Society is named for Robert McCarrison, a British doctor who studied nutrition in India. Its website is full of important nutritional info, including this:

When I worked in East Africa from 1960 – 1965, there was not a single case of breast, colon or prostate cancer, no cardiovascular heart disease and any diabetes seemed relatively mild. Nor was this absence of such diseases due to poor diagnostic facilities.

It’s like a British version of the Weston Price Foundation.

Interesting lecture by Michael Crawford, its president.

More. It was founded in 1966 and has about 300 members.

How Much Play Will This Get?

How will Al Gore respond to this, I wonder?

Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade . . . All four agencies that track Earth’s temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930.

Thanks to Geoffrey Kidd.

More. A response to this article. Thanks to Kathy Wollard.

Better in Google Books

I’ve heard that Samuel Beckett’s plays, written in French, are better in English. I have no idea if that’s true but I am sure that Television Without Pity: 752 Things We Hate to Love (and Love to Hate) About TV by Tara Ariano and Sarah Bunting is better in its more accessible, abridged Google Books version. I remember Sarah from when she was an especially visible fan of My So-Called Life. I got a much-enjoyed soundtrack cassette from her. Then she and Ariano started Television Without Pity, a brilliant entrepreneurial idea, which has helped me understand so many erudite HBO dramas.

My Theory of Human Evolution (micropygmies)

In 2004, anthropologists discovered fossils of tiny human ancestors on an Indonesian island. Called micropygmies, they were about three feet tall. Their brains were smaller than chimpanzee brains. They appeared to be descended from Homo erectus rather than Homo sapiens.

They survived until about 20,000 years ago — which was impressive, since Homo sapiens reached nearby islands about 50,000 years ago. Why didn’t the Homo sapiens kill off the micropygmies? Jared Diamond was puzzled by this:

The discoverers of the Flores micropygmies conclude that they survived on Flores until at least 18,000 years ago (1, 2). To me, that is the most astonishing finding, even more astonishing than the micropygmies’ existence. We know that full-sized H. sapiens reached Australia and New Guinea through Indonesia by 46,000 years ago, that most of the large mammals of Australia then promptly went extinct (probably in part exterminated by H. sapiens), and that the first arrival of behaviorally modern H. sapiens on all other islands and continents in the world was accompanied by similar waves of extinction/extermination. We also know that humans have exterminated competing humans even more assiduously than they have exterminated large nonhuman mammals. How could the micropygmies have survived the onslaught of H. sapiens?

One could perhaps seek a parallel in the peaceful modern coexistence of full-sized sapiens and pygmy sapiens in the Congo and Philippines, based on complementary economies, with pygmy hunter-gatherers trading forest products to full-sized sapiens farmers. But full-sized sapiens hunter-gatherers 18,000 years ago would have been much too similar economically to micropygmy hunter-gatherers to permit coexistence based on complementary economies and trade. One could also invoke the continued coexistence of chimpanzees and humans in Africa, based on chimps being economically too different from us to compete (very doubtful for micropygmies), and on chimps being too dangerous to be worth hunting (probably true for micropygmies). Then, one could point to the reported survival of the pygmy stegodont elephants on Flores until 12,000 years ago (1, 2): If stegodonts survived so long in the presence of H. sapiens, why not micropygmies as well? Finally, one might suggest that all of the recent dates for stegodonts and micropygmies on Flores are in error [despite the evidence presented in (1) and (2)], and that both stegodonts and micropygmies became extinct 46,000 years ago within a century of H. sapiens‘ arrival on Flores. All of these analogies and suggestions strike me as implausible: I just can’t conceive of a long temporal overlap of sapiens and erectus, and I am reluctant to believe that all of the dates in (1) and (2) are wrong. Hence I don’t know what to make of the reported coexistence.

Yes, I know, when you have a hammer everything looks like a nail. But I think Diamond is quite wrong about the nature of Homo sapiens economies 50,000 years ago. To Diamond, the big change was the invention of agriculture. Before that, hunter-gatherer; after that, farmer and occupational specialization. I believe there were vast economic changes long before agriculture — it took a long time to evolve language, and that didn’t start until there was already plenty of trading. By 50,000 years ago, I’m sure there was lots of specialization (Person A makes/knows X, Person B makes/knows Y), giving the Homo sapiens all sorts of tools and other useful expertise that the micropygmies didn’t have. They both hunted and gathered but much larger brains and a vast amount of expertise would have been for naught if they didn’t hunt and gather different foods. Homo erectus did not have anything like human language, as far as I can tell; therefore they didn’t have lots of trading or expertise. The two groups could co-exist because their foods were different. I suspect the H. sapiens, able to hunt really large animals, thought small animals, which supported the micropygmies, a waste of time.

More about Acne (continued)

When I was a teenager, my dermatologist gave me a long list of foods that might cause acne. It wasn’t any help at the time but later, when my acne was better, it helped me realize that drinking Diet Pepsi caused me to get acne 2 or 3 days later because “cola drinks” was on the list.

Now I learn from Tucker Max that it was probably the caffeine that did it:

I had bad acne in high school. I cut all caffeine out of my diet–cola, chocolate, etc–and about 90% of the acne went away. I got the rest with Accutane.

Very useful information. The list my dermatologist gave me was too long and too homogenous. “The acne caffeine link is well-known to dermatologists,” Tucker added. Except those who claim acne has nothing to do with diet.

Brain-Enhancing Drugs

A helpful collection of stories about the use of drugs that help you get things done. This amused me:

Individuals who experiment with these substances are on their own, testing drugs on themselves in a wild, crowdsourced, ad hoc brain-enhancement experiment. They join a scientific tradition of self-experimentation that stretches back to Santorio Santorio, a 16th-century physiologist.

If you experiment with mood-altering drugs, you join an older tradition.