Month: October 2010

Placebo Non-Disclosure

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A new study in the Annals of Internal Medicine asked how often placebo-controlled medical studies made clear what the placebo was. The abstract says:

Most studies did not disclose the composition of the study placebo.

Which may give the wrong impression. About 90% of the studies they looked at did not say what the placebo was.

The paper illustrates the problem with an example:

In one of these studies [where the placebo was not described], the authors commented that “The lack of any overall effect in patients with myocardial infarction might be related to the unexpectedly low mortality rate in the placebo group.†The possibility that the placebo composition may have influenced this “unexpectedly low mortality†was apparently not considered.

Thanks to Gunnar Schröder.

My Experience of Sickness

Seth Roberts12 Comments

I am at a hotel. Yesterday I decided to take a walk. A short distance from the hotel I started to walk uphill. It was surprisingly hard. I realized I was sick.

I think this is what happens when your immune system is working properly: Sickness stops being obvious. I think my immune system is working well because I sleep well and eat plenty of fermented foods.

I have never heard sickness described like this by anyone else. I have heard it described in terms of obvious suffering thousands of times. Which suggests a lot of room for improvement.

The C.I.A. and Self-Experimentation

Seth Roberts1 Comment

I learned of The Human Factor: Inside the CIA’s Dysfunctional Intelligence Culture by Ishmael Jones (a pseudonym) from an interview on the New Yorker website. This comment by the author interested me:

Once the C.I.A. became a place to get rich, effective operations ended. Today, more than ninety per cent of C.I.A. employees live and work entirely within the United States, in violation of the C.I.A.’s founding charter [to supply only foreign intelligence].

I could say much the same about science: Once it became a place to get rich (or at least get large grants), effective science became a lot less common. A great deal of science is done by drug companies. They pay a lot. Some of their scientists are surely brilliant but their talents are wasted by the need to find solutions that will be highly profitable. My self-experimentation found solutions that cost nothing and make far more intellectual sense. I was able to do something that didn’t produce a lot of publications because it wasn’t my job.

Many skills make good full-time jobs. Science doesn’t. There is too much pressure for short-term results. Without short-term results, you may lose your job or your grant. (Or, in China, most of your income.) Nor is science a good source of status. If you want your science to provide your status, you will be under great pressure to conform. Yet for practically all scientists, it’s their full-time job and their main source of status. This may not make it impossible for them to do good work but I suspect it comes close to doing so. My self-experimentation was effective not only because it was fast and cheap (per experiment) but also because I could be slow (per publication) and do something low-status.

Madame Bovary and Self-Experimentation

Seth Roberts4 Comments

Someone asked Lydia Davis: Why another translation of Madame Bovary? She replied:

In the case of a book that appeared more than 150 years ago, like Madame Bovary, and that is an important landmark in the history of the novel, there is room for plenty of different English versions. For example, 1) the first editions of the original text may have been faulty, and over the years one or more corrected editions have been published, so that the earliest English translations no longer match the most accurate original; 2) the earliest translators (as was the case with the Muirs rendering Kafka) may have felt they needed to inflict subtle or not so subtle alterations on the style and even the content of the original so as to make it more acceptable to the Anglophone audience; with the passing of time, we come to deem this something of a betrayal and ask for a more faithful version. 3) Earlier versions may simply not be as good in other respects as they could be—let another translator have a try.

This reminds me of my three-part answer to the question a journalist asked me: why it mattered that butter improved my arithmetic speed by 5%.

Just as I disliked my answer, I disliked Davis’s answer. It’s hypothetical (“may have been faulty”, “may have felt”, “may not be as good as they could be”). It’s flat and obvious (earlier versions may have room for improvement). It’s irrelevant (bad translation of Kafka does not justify new translation of Flaubert).

I had trouble figuring out a better answer to what I was asked, but I could instantly say what Davis should have written: The story of how she decided to do a new translation. (“I began to think about doing a new translation when . . . “) That would have been a lot more emotion-laden and not hypothetical, obvious, or irrelevant.

As soon as I thought what Davis should have said, I could see what I should have said. I should have answered the journalist’s question like this: Why does 5% matter? Let me tell you why I was so excited by this. . . .Â

Via Marginal Revolution.

Periodontitis and Omega-3

Seth Roberts6 Comments

A few years ago, after I started taking about 3 tablespoons/day of flaxseed oil, my dentist told me my gums were much healthier. They were less red, more pink. Friends and blog readers who took flaxseed oil in similar amounts noticed the same thing. Tyler Cowen’s gums improved so much he no longer needed gum surgery.

An epidemiological study in the November Journal of the American Dietetic Association reports correlations between omega-3 intake and periodontitis (an extreme form of inflamed gums). The more omega-3, the less periodontitis. I’m sure that sufficient omega-3 intake cures periodontitis so this study has methodological interest for me. One interesting point is that the study reached a correct conclusion — contrary to the nihilism of John Ioannidis. Another is that the correlations were weak. The risk of periodontitis was only 20% lower in the group (quintile?) with the highest omega-3 intake. Although there were 9000 subjects, there was no significant correlation with linolenic acid, the form of omega-3 found in flaxseed oil.

Thanks to Sean Curley.

Walnuts: Brain Food?

Seth Roberts20 Comments

At a Mr. Lee’s restaurant (a Chinese chain), I started chatting with a girl sitting near me. I told her I was a psychology professor. “You know what people are thinking,” she said. I lamely said, no, I study what foods make the brain work best.

“I don’t know the English word for it,” she said. She drew a walnut. Good for your brain, her parents had told her. I was astonished. When I got to China, my arithmetic scores mysteriously improved. I had expected them to get worse, if anything. I tried to duplicate my American diet in Beijing but it is hard to duplicate the flaxseed oil. (Chinese flaxseed oil is worthless. I can bring it from America but not easily, and it’s impossible to keep it cold the whole way.) I had tested various explanations of the improvement but none held up.

I was starting to believe the reason for the improvement was walnuts. I have two servings/day of yogurt, each time with walnuts. I ate a lot of yogurt with walnuts in Berkeley, too; this was not a dramatic change. But maybe I eat more walnuts in China, and maybe the walnuts have more omega-3. Maybe the walnuts are fresher. In Berkeley I put ground flaxseed in my yogurt (in addition to walnuts), without obvious improvement. Walnuts are lower in omega-3 than flaxseeds.

A Chinese friend of mine had told me the same thing — that her parents had said that walnuts are good for the brain. This is a common Chinese belief, mingled with the curious idea that they are good for the brain because they look like a brain. The Wikipedia entry for walnut, which includes its use in Chinese medicine, says nothing about improving brain function. This long article about the benefits of walnuts doesn’t connect them directly with better brain function. It does say they are considered “brain food” because of high omega-3 content and links to a page that says 1/4 cup of walnuts (25 g) has 2.3 g of omega-3. I am now consuming 2 tablespoons/day of flaxseed oil, which contains 14 g of omega-3. I have sometimes consumed 3 or 4 tablespoons/day (with 21 or 28 g omega-3). You can see why 2 g doesn’t impress me, especially when added to 14 g. I thought I was getting the optimal amount of omega-3 from flaxseed oil. Adding a small amount to the optimal amount shouldn’t have a noticeable effect. This article says walnuts are brain food because of their lecithin content. Lecithin is used to make acetylcholine, a neurotransmitter.

Miraculously I can gather better evidence by myself, in a month, than all the evidence I’ve found. I simply vary how much walnuts I eat and see what happens to my arithmetic score. The experiment is worth doing because of the common Chinese belief and my puzzlingly good scores. Maybe walnuts help a brain that is already getting plenty of omega-3. Maybe not.

A Chinese Physicist Resigns

Seth Roberts2 Comments

A Chinese physicist recently resigned from his job (pure research) at a Beijing research institute. His salary was too low. The base salary is something like $200/month, with something like $1200 for each paper you publish. He explained his decision in a letter to his bosses, which he posted on the Internet. From Google Translate:

Dear leaders:

Hello!

August 2006, I single-handedly carried the mat, one hand holding the quilt to the school to report to work. Slept on the floor in the office 3 nights later, Frank and others XX XXX Street, shares a house, 800 yuan per month. Themselves feel better. However, when my wife came to see me when to Shanghai, but a cry. She did not expect this to write beautiful prose, in English is superb, the monthly salary of ten years ago, men who have three thousand dollars so come down: the room to work without a decent table, there is no place to sit, could only sit bed; office also can take place without her. Yes, until now, my office is a chair, a common HP laser printer or the wife gave me a birthday present. His wife’s insistence, in March 2007, after six months sharing with others, I moved to Village X XX X, X round room (Reference: College on XXXX XXX), monthly rent of 1,600 yuan.

I come to school only task is to do research. Not in class, not with the students. I do specialty is theoretical physics. In my opinion, the current basic problems of theoretical physics can be divided into three areas, but also three levels: the top and most shallow, which is the quality of particle physics, neutrino problem, particle state mixing problem ; Secondly, the harder is self-consistent description of the gravitational field and unify quantum field; final, most difficult, is the true cosmology, the concept of the universe all things are included, the true cosmological should a TOE (Theory of Everything). Cosmology is now called, should be called observational cosmology, from a theoretical point of view, can only be called up to fit the observational cosmology. Three aspects of the course, or interrelated, each is at stake.

Second half of 2006, I understand the unified description of the main energy to the gravitational field and quantum field theory and mathematical tools needed which, in an arbitrary manifold reflects the quantum characteristics of the mathematical tools may be harmonic analysis. But I do not master any of harmonic analysis on manifolds.

Time to flash the first half of 2007, the annual meeting of gravity, I consider the possible use of Finsler geometry to try to do quantum gravity, began to self-Finsler geometry, the same year by the end of September, I made use of Finsler geometry re-expressed in general relativity. However, re-expressed with the Finsler geometry of general relativity does not make me to the direction of quantum gravity there is any progress, Finsler geometry is very strict rigid mathematical structure, the introduction of any features of the quantum structure itself will be incompatible with the geometry. Of course, you can put Finsler space-time structure of dark energy as an inevitable result, however, computability theory, the ability to compare theory and observations are not good.

July 2007, I bought a house in Shanghai, the total price of 96 million, 30-year loans to 66 million. After that, our economic pressure to the limit: my wife rented a house in Beijing, XXX XX Garden Park Unit X X X Building, Room (Reference: Beijing XXX Company XX), monthly rent of 2,500 yuan; my house in Shanghai, monthly rent of 1,600 yuan; also close to 6,000 yuan per month mortgage. All of my salary: two accounts, one CCB, more than 2,000 points (up once already, I am now in January 2669.27 yuan (March 2010)); another investment line, 1,800 yuan per month. Do not say that I run in Beijing and Shanghai both transport costs, my salary to feed my already running out. So we got married in 2005 had never to children.

Under the pressure of the huge costs climb in 2007, first half of 2008, I intend to do some simple problems, the observation of neutrino cosmology application, or vice versa, according to some astronomical observations to discuss the micro- Mass of sub-limits. However, read the literature, in-depth period of time to do that: this work is not a person with a PC machine can be done, at least a group of some value to make it possible to do the work. So, do I still have to go back I am a person with a PC, will be able to do mathematical physics. At this time, there have been two things: First, my wife is pregnant, should be joyous, married 4 years, she has XX years of age. Second, in June 2008, my body feels discomfort, severe cough began after the end of August, the end of September to do CT, in the chest, heart on top, between the lungs lymphatic tumor, a copy of the specific report, see CT.

08 expiration of the contract work my wife returned to Shanghai from Beijing. August 30, we arrived in Shanghai, after living for a month in a hotel (of course, is my wife’s company out of accommodation), I X, X, Room XXX Village renters (references, XXX), 3,300 yuan monthly rent. Our own new home in the June 30 submitted to, because my physical problems, and his wife was pregnant, there is no way to decoration. Only in November 2008 leased to our new home workers rough (references XXXX), monthly rent of 1,800 yuan.

My CT report came out, there are three doctors that the disease: sarcoidosis best results, followed by lymphoma or lung cancer. Six City Hospital, Zhongshan Hospital and the City Chest Hospital’s doctors agree that: To do mediastinal thoracic endoscopy to confirm the diagnosis. However, my child is born in November 2, and before that in October, I can not do chest examination. October 21, 2008, in my guarantee, Chest Hospital, XXXX decided in accordance with sarcoidosis, I began to hormone (prednisone) therapy. In fact, I know, if it is worse than the result of sarcoidosis, I have only the choice of suicide: I can not let my white mother in the cold begging to others: “Save my son… “; or my wife holding an infant child:” save my husband… ”

Thank bliss, I am still alive and well. But, my friends were not so lucky: Mao XXXX, 2005 in High Energy suicide; von XXX, one of my best friends, in January 2007 committed suicide at Tokyo University. Their death, and they chose Theoretical Physics, chose to do research are closely related. Von XXX, 28 years old when he died less, 8 years old his father died, take pains to support his mother and younger siblings. In the Babaoshan, watching Von XXX’s mother, that Ganchangcunduan, piercing woman, I was deeply sad but misery. To von XXX, I think I should continue to do theoretical physics.

2009, I went back to quality issues, problems and mixed particle state mixing matrix. An elegant theory that all the observed phenomena should be explained with the natural, but the existing weak unified theory, have failed. After several months of effort, I think, rest mass operator should be introduced to the rest mass of the quantum field operator as is the rest mass of the intrinsic value, so that uniform interpretation of quantum states can be mixed and mixed matrix. Done in July, found the problem difficult to overcome, and because of physical reasons, was closed. After the October, and XXX, XXX discussions and continue to do for some time. I found a little forward, but there are fundamental problems from a distance, need to be more profound thoughts.

In 2009, my body slowly getting better. Done 4 CT, 4 after March, the condition improved slowly. And then to Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital treatment is the same method. September 2, to Nantong XXXX hospital medicine treatment, medication in January, costs over 3,500 yuan (can not be reimbursed, easy to find the invoice.) To October 2009, my medical insurance card, no money already. At this time, CT showed that half of the tumor has disappeared, the results see the copy. Since then I have to give up treatment, on the one hand do not want to spend more money on the one hand I believe I can beat the rest of the half.

2008 year-end assessment, I did not write. Do write to me to do research, but failed; or I was sick; or I just add a small baby at home? Write my difficulties, I do not want to let others sympathetic to buckle my money? For a limb still, physical and mental health of man, which is a shame.

Thus, starting from March 2009, my investment line of Cary, 900 yuan less per month, only 900 yuan.

Finally, I deeply know that I am the circle around me, most people are not doing scientific research. Doing scientific research is false, is an issue, published an article to change some money, to live. (Above paragraph, is not directed against any person or thing, I seriously do research and those who pay tribute to the depths of his heart. Even if someone is writing papers for money, as long as there is no plagiarism, is beyond reproach, and now the rule is like that. I can not do, but my poor ability to adapt.) von XXX, XXXX Mao may also, like me, are the idealists, does not fit in this circle there to do, so they died.

Yes, I suddenly realized: I do not fit inside the circle to do the research now. Otherwise, I will and Feng XX, XXX Mao same fate. In the November 25, 2009 made a report terms of rest mass operator, I decided to leave. November 30, in the center of the meeting, I proposed to my research was no longer suitable.

All see, I know, the year-end 2009, has not filled out the necessary assessment: whether what I was made or not made anything, I knew.

So, I Merchants Bank of Cary, from the beginning in January 2010, a month is 0. I can start another kind of living law.

Determined from the high school to study physics to me, from the self to the Thermodynamics of Newtonian mechanics, to quantum mechanics; from the self-study calculus to linear algebra; learn from differential geometry, group theory, and then learn topology. Into his own youth, twenty years into his effort, and now had to give up, is a frustration.

Dreamed last night: spring, towards the sea, I lingered under the weeping willow, think about the physics, think of the beauty of the universe!

I know, only to leave, I can live. When people have forgotten that the earth is the soul of the physical sacrifice, I still worried about soul.

Must live with dignity, I can only leave. In the vast universe, the short life of individuals, such as fireworks, energy and all the leaders met, life is fate. Besides, I also get more help and the central leadership to take care, keep in mind when I hope to have the opportunity to return.

Why Small Change = Big Deal

Seth Roberts14 Comments

Eating a half-stick of butter (60 g) every day apparently improved how fast I can do simple arithmetic problems (e.g., 7-5, 3+1). I improved about 5% — from 630 to 600 msec per problem. My scores had been at 630 msec for months. They suddenly dropped.

A reporter said to me that a 5% improvement isn’t much. You couldn’t notice it. Why did this matter?

I did not reply “ what good is a newborn baby?” I said it mattered for three reasons:

1. You cannot easily produce such an improvement. I was already doing very well. For example, I had already lowered my scores a lot via omega-3. Imagine the world record for the 100 meter dash suddenly dropping 5% due to eating something you can find in a supermarket.

2. A 5% improvement is just the beginning. There is room for optimization — better dosage, better timing of taking the butter, and so on.

3. The brain is a mirror of the rest of the body. Learning the best diet for the brain, at least in terms of fat, will help us learn the best diet for the rest of the body, just as learning what house current is best for one electrical appliance is a guide to what other electrical appliances are designed for. They’re all designed to work with the same house current.

Alas, this is not just a poor answer, it’s what I actually said. I give myself a C+. Reason 1 is almost gibberish. Reason 2 is technocratic. A good answer is more emotional. Reason 3 is okay, if not very clear.

At Berkeley I knew a student who had transferred from a junior college. He is/was black. He had probably gotten into Berkeley because Berkeley administrators wanted to admit more black students. He complained one day that he got C’s on his essays even though “all the words were spelled correctly.” It was frustrating, he said. I am in a similar situation here. My answer is poor but I cannot easily do better.